Thursday, November 4, 2010

Democrat Senators Up for 2012! 21 seats that we need to target now!

Courtesy of Wikipedia. Over the next few weeks I will take a look at each of these races and outline how we must attack them and how we defeat them. It is vital that we hold 65-70 senate seats after the 2012 election.

Democratic incumbent elections

[edit] Dianne Feinstein of California

Four-term Senator Dianne Feinstein was re-elected with 59% of the vote in 2006. At a rally for Barbara Boxer in October 2010, Feinstein said that she will be running for reelection.[1]

[edit] Tom Carper of Delaware

Two-term Senator Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006.
There have been unconfirmed reports that Carper is suffering from a health problem. Carper has denied it, but has made statements to the effect that he might not run for reelection.[2]

[edit] Bill Nelson of Florida

Two-term Senator Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006. He will be 70 years old in 2012.
Appointed Republican Senator George LeMieux, who currently serves with Nelson is being discussed as someone who may challenge Nelson in 2012.[3]
A poll conducted in July, 2010 showed Nelson leading LeMieux 49-28% with 23% undecided. Nelson also led former Governor Jeb Bush by a smaller margin of 46-44% with 9% undecided and a margin of error of ±3.26% [4]

[edit] Daniel Akaka of Hawaii

Four-term Senator Daniel Akaka was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2006. He will be 88 years old in 2012.
Former Congressman Ed Case, who unsuccessfully ran against Akaka in the 2006 Senate election, has hinted that he might run for Akaka's seat in 2012, and he has already started fundraising for such a run.[5] Republican Governor of Hawaii Linda Lingle, who is term limited in 2010, said in October 2010 that she would "likely take a look at" the race.[6]

[edit] Ben Cardin of Maryland

First-term Senator Ben Cardin was elected with 54% of the vote in 2006 against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted of 569 voters from July 10–12, 2010, in a potential rematch of 2006, Cardin leads Steele 58% to 28%. In a generic matchup, Cardin leads with 51%, to an unknown generic Republican at 33%.[7]

[edit] Debbie Stabenow of Michigan

Two-term Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.
Republican Conservative Constitutionalist and Tea Party Activist, Chad Dewey, announced his intent to run in the 2012 election while attending the Tax Day Tea Party event in Washington D.C. on April 15, 2010.[8]
A poll conducted in March 2010 showed former Republican Governor John Engler leading Stabenow, 42% to 41%, with a margin of error of ±4% and 10% unsure.[9]
Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is looking at running.[10]

[edit] Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

First-term Senator Amy Klobuchar was elected with 58% of the vote in 2006. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at 59%, have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state seem to have kept the senator's numbers up with the citizens of Minnesota.

[edit] Claire McCaskill of Missouri

First-term Senator Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. Missouri is often considered a swing state in presidential elections; it has voted for the winning candidate save twice since 1904—in 1956 and in 2008.
McCaskill has never had particularly high approval ratings. In March 2009, her net approval was +5.

[edit] Jon Tester of Montana

First-term Senator Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns. Tester will seek reelection.[11]
Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg has met with party officials about a possible run.[12]

[edit] Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Two-term Senator and former Governor Ben Nelson was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2006. He will be 71 years old in 2012. Nelson has decided to seek a third term.[13]
Pundits and analysts have suggested Nelson will be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2012 after he secured deals to exempt Nebraska from new Medicaid payments, ease excise taxes on home state health insurance companies, and broker abortion deals in the Senate healthcare bill.[14]
Nebraska Governor David Heineman, Congressmen Lee Terry, Jeff Fortenberry, and Adrian M. Smith, and a wide variety of state officials are mentioned as potential candidates. Heineman has expressed no interest in the seat but would not rule out deciding to run at a later date.[14] A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted on December 28, 2009 has Heineman leading Nelson 61-30, with 4% undecided.

[edit] Bob Menendez of New Jersey

First-term Senator Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor, following his election to said office in November 2005. In November 2006 Menendez survived a strong challenge from Republican Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term. He will be 58 years old in 2012.
Former CNN Anchor Lou Dobbs is seriously considering a challenge to Menendez as either a Republican or Independent.[15]

[edit] Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico

Five-term Senator Jeff Bingaman was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2006. He will be 69 years old in 2012.

[edit] Kirsten Gillibrand of New York

Two-term Senator Hillary Clinton was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. Gillibrand won a special election in 2010 with 61% of the vote. Gillibrand will seek reelection[16]

[edit] Kent Conrad of North Dakota

Four-term Senator Kent Conrad was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006. Conrad has not decided whether to run for reelection.[17]

[edit] Sherrod Brown of Ohio

First-term Senator Sherrod Brown was elected with 56% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney. A poll conducted June 26–27 by Public Policy Polling shows that 45% of voters would vote to re-elect Brown, while 41% would vote to replace him.[18]
Brown will seek reelection. Republican Congressman Jim Jordan and Ohio Republican Secretary of State nominee Jon Husted have been named as a possible contenders[19]

[edit] Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania

First-term Senator Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling June 19–21, 2010 showed that in a Casey-Santorum rematch, Casey leads 51-39.[20]

[edit] Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island

First-term Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was elected with 53.5% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points.

[edit] Jim Webb of Virginia

First-term Senator and former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb was elected to the Senate in 2006 by a margin of .6 percent, defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 election. Allen is considering a rematch.[21]

[edit] Maria Cantwell of Washington

Two-term Senator Maria Cantwell was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2006 over Republican Mike McGavick. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling July 27-August 1, 2010 of 1,204 voters had Cantwell leading in two potential matchups. In a matchup with Republican Congressman Dave Reichert, Cantwell led 47% to 41%. In a matchup with Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Cantwell led 49% to 37%.[22]

[edit] Joe Manchin of West Virginia

Former nine-term Senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2006. He voluntarily stepped down from his chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee, effective January 6, 2009. In a speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Byrd proclaimed that he would remain in the Senate "till this old body drops."[23][24] On June 28, 2010, Robert Byrd died at the age of 92, leaving this seat vacant.
A special election to fill this seat was held in November 2010, which popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin won.

[edit] Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Four-term Senator Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. He will be 77 years old in 2012. Kohl will determine whether he should seek reelection over the next several of months.[25]
Congressman Paul Ryan will not run against Kohl if he seeks reelection but will take a look at running for the Senate if Kohl were to retire.[26]

[edit] Independent incumbent elections

[edit] Joe Lieberman of Connecticut

Four-term Senator Joe Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won re-election with 49.7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat." He will be 70 years old in 2012.
Connecticut Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy is a potential candidate.[27]
Pundits have predicted that due to Lieberman's unwavering support of John McCain he will be experiencing a tougher race than he normally runs.[28]

[edit] Bernie Sanders of Vermont

First-term Senator Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. He will be 71 years old in 2012.

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